Kolkata-Knight-Riders. (Photo Source: IPL)

Kolkata Knight Riders' playoff hopes in the ongoing Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 suffered a major setback after a recent 39-run defeat to Gujarat Titans at Eden Gardens on Monday. This recorded KKR’s fifth loss in eight games, placing them seventh on the points table with just six points. With six games left, they are in a must-win situation to stand a chance of qualifying.

Chasing 199, KKR’s batting order collapsed once again. Despite skipper Ajinkya Rahane’s 50 off 36 balls, no other batters could provide the crucial support, eventually leading to a disappointing defeat. Young Angkrish Raghuvanshi, who hit 27* off just 13 balls, came in at the  No.

9 position, while Andre Russell was also held back too long. By the time they arrived, the asking rate had gone over 14, making the target far to achieve.

Earlier, Shubman Gill’s 90 and Sai Sudharsan’s 52 guided GT to a solid 198/3. Despite a slow powerplay, their top order anchored the innings before Jos Buttler's late cameo. KKR’s net run rate also took a hit, dropping to +0.212. With their next fixture being against Punjab Kings on April 26, KKR’s margin for error has to be dropped if they hope to still be in the hunt for a top-four finish.

Basic Requirements for Playoff Qualification

The IPL has strictly followed a 10-team format since 2022. Since then, the following trends have been observed:

• 16 points (8 wins): Virtually through to the playoffs.
• 14 points (7 wins): Still a chance to make it to the top four.
  However, that depends on the NRR as well as how other results pan out (for example, RCB in 2024).
• 12 points (6 wins): Quite rare. Only once has a team with 12 points made it through to the playoffs (SRH in IPL 2019).

Remaining Matches for KKR

The Shah Rukh Khan-owned side has a total of six games remaining. The fixture list is as follows:

• vs PBKS: Kolkata, April 26, 7:30 pm
• vs DC: Delhi, April 29, 7:30 pm
• vs RR: Kolkata, May 4, 3:30 pm
• vs CSK: Kolkata, May 7, 7:30 pm
• vs SRH: Hyderabad, May 10, 7:30 pm
• vs RCB: Bengaluru, May 17, 7:30 pm

Qualification Scenarios Scenario 1: KKR wins all six of their remaining games

Total Wins: 3 (current) + 6 = 9

Total Points: 6 (current) + 12 = 18

Outcome: Traditionally, 18 points is a safe position for any team hoping to confirm their playoffs berth. Notably, KKR has a positive NRR despite five losses and will be hoping to build on that going forward.

Scenario 2: KKR win five out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 3 (current) + 5 = 8

Total Points: 6 (current) + 10 = 16

Outcome: A 16-point finish will still provide a good chance to secure a top-four finish. However, with six teams already above them in the tally, five wins will only help them, depending on their improved net run rate and other teams' results.

Scenario 3: KKR win four out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 3 (current) + 4 = 7

Total Points: 6 (current) + 8 = 14

Outcome: If the defending champions manage to win four of their remaining six matches, they’ll finish with 14 points. While that might look like a decent number, it likely won’t be enough to guarantee a playoff spot this season. The side will be out of the race if this situation occurs, and will remain mathematically alive in the competition. The main challenge will be to not only win but win with a good margin to boost their NRR. 

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Scenario 4: KKR win three out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 3 (current) + 3 = 6

Total Points: 6 (current) + 6 = 12

Outcome: The probability of finishing in the fourth position with six wins this season is nil. With the top six teams already having 8 or above points under their belt, KKR will have no chance of making it to the cut. However, they can spoil the party for a few of the franchises who are looking to clinch the top-four spot.