Unusually warm sea surface temperatures was one of the main reasons for the record-breaking rainfall that hit the UAE on April 16, 2024. That is according to new research, which found that warmer oceans pumped more moisture into the air and directly influenced where and how hard the rain fell.

That day, the UAE witnessed its heaviest downpour in modern history. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) recorded rainfall far beyond normal levels. Some areas received more rain in a single day than they typically see in an entire year.

Al Ain recorded 254 mm of rain. Dubai received 142 mm. By comparison, the UAE averages just 140–200 mm annually. April alone typically sees only 8 mm. The incident caused several residents and companies to rethink weather warnings and how to respond to them.

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Why caused the event?

Researchers at NYU Abu Dhabi's Mubadala ACCESS center used satellite data and computer models to understand what caused the extreme event. Their findings point to one key factor — the warm sea surface temperatures in the days leading up to the storm.

Warmer oceans increased atmospheric moisture. This fuelled more intense convective storms over the Arabian Gulf region.

If ocean conditions had been cooler, the analysis shows, much of that rain would likely have fallen farther north over Iran’s Zagros Mountains rather than over the UAE. The study suggests that rising ocean temperatures can significantly intensify precipitation events in the region.

“Our findings show how ocean conditions can influence regional weather systems and rainfall patterns,” said Basit Khan, lead author and researcher at NYU Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala ACCESS. "By better understanding these interactions, we can support improved weather forecasting and preparedness across the region.”

The research was co-authored by Basit Khan, Subrota Halder, Zouhair Lachkar, Francesco Paparella, and Olivier Pauluis.

Building better climate models

According to the team, the study underscores the importance of ocean–atmosphere interactions in shaping weather in arid regions. It also contributes to ongoing efforts to refine climate and weather models.

"Our work adds to the scientific understanding of how large-scale environmental processes affect regional weather," said Olivier Pauluis, Professor of Mathematics and Co-Principal Investigator at Mubadala ACCESS. "This knowledge is essential for developing robust forecasting tools and supporting evidence-based decision-making."

The findings highlight the value of continued research into regional climate systems and the role ocean conditions play in driving weather variability across the Arabian Gulf.

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